Kenneth Rogoff is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, and was formerly chief economist at the IMF. He wrote an article for Project Syndicate titled Russia’s Skeptical G8 Partners. Here’s a example of the professor’s economic professionalism:
Why wasn’t Chinese president Hu Jintao, whose country’s economy is the world’s second largest (when measured at world prices), given a seat at the table instead of Putin? After all, even with all its energy resources, and even with today’s sky-high oil and gas prices, Russia’s national income is only about the size of Greater Los Angeles
Prof. Rogoff takes China’s GDP measured in purchasing power parity dollars and compares it to Russia. Well, prices on goods and services in China are definitely many times lower then in Russia or in America (one only needs to visit Walmart). Then he takes Russia’s GDP measured in official exchange rate dollars and compares it to Greater Los Angeles. But even here Prof. Rogoff is twisting facts. Official exchange rate GDP of Russia is $740 billion but GDP of Greater LA is $500 billion. Are 740 and 500 "comparable"?! I envy Prof. Rogoff's students - it must be a cakewalk writing term papers in his class.
http://www.lawa.org/news/newsDisplay.cfm?newsID=91
Citing data provided by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG), the study projects a Greater Los Angeles area population of more than 21 million people, a work force of 9.9 million men and women, and a gross domestic product of more than $600 billion by the year 2015. Today’s figures are 15 million people, 6.87 million employed, and $500 billion GDP.
IMHO even by 2015 Greater LA's GDP will be uncomparable with current GDP of Russia.
Now I have a great counter-argument for Prof. Rogoff. After all, even being the greatest power in the world the US GDP per capita is at the level of US$ 41 800 while a god forgotten, permafrost bound region of Ymalo-Nenetsk in Siberia boasts US$ 52 000 GDP per capita.
For your information – some facts from CIA Factbook:
China
GDP (purchasing power parity):
$8.859 trillion (2005 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate):
$2.225 trillion (2005 est.)
GDP - real growth rate:
9.9% (official data) (2005 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP):
$6,800 (2005 est.)
Russia
GDP (purchasing power parity):
$1.589 trillion (2005 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate):
$740.7 billion (2005 est.)
GDP - real growth rate:
6.4% (2005 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP):
$11,100 (2005 est.)
"Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem." The universal methodological principle, known as Okkam's razor, says "Entities are not to be multiplied above the necessary." I try to use this principle to understand Russia - if there is a more simple way to explain something, then this way should be closer to truth than a more complex one.
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18 comments:
Spot on, Konstantin.
And the most telling of the numbers is not the GDP, but the per-capita income. China has grown tremendously, and has a large economy -- but an even larger population. Thus, even with a larger GDP than Russia, most Chinese are far, far more impoverished.
The average Russian is far closer to the average G7 citizen than is the average Chinese citizen. There's a significant difference between G7 citizens and Russians, but not nearly the difference that exists between G7 -- or even Russians -- and the Chinese. One need only take a look at the vast warehouses of people (euphemistically called "dormitories") the Chinese use to supply labor for their factories to see the difference.
Rogoff is decidedly wrong.
-- twicker
Konstantin is drunk on crazed Russophila as usual.
Konstantin, your own data shows that Russia has a GDP FIVE TIMES smaller than that of China, yet Russia not China is on the G-8, supposedly a group of the world's wealthiest NATIONS.
If you think that Russia having a GDP only 1/3 larger than the CITY OF LOS ANGELES is something to be proud of, you truly need to be in a padded room.
The idea of YOU referring to someone ELSE as incompetent based on this data is a classic Russian comedy.
Of course, all will be made right when China easily swallows Russia. Then it will get Russia's G-8 ticket by default.
As per usual, La Russophobe is not correct in her posting.
1) The G8 is not supposed to be a group of the world's wealthiest nations; it's supposed to be a group of the world's wealthiest democracies. This is why the Soviet Union, even when it had a GDP that dwarfed most other countries, was never invited.
2) La Russophobe still doesn't pay attention to the fact that the average Russian lives better than the average Chinese citizen (see the same CIA World Factbook references listed by Konstantin -- specific references: the China entry and the Russia entry). For more information, also see the 2005 World Population Data Sheet, which has statistics both for the 2004 GNI PPP per capita income (in $US -- for 2004, China was $5,530, Russia was $9,620) and for the percent of the population living on less than $2/day (considered abject poverty -- China, 47%; Russia, 8%). Or maybe you want the % of population with access to improved drinking water as of 2002 (the latest year figures are available) -- China, 92% for urban, 68% for rural; Russia, 99% for urban, 88% for rural.
In a nutshell, China has a larger economy -- but, with a population of more than 1.3 billion, it has far, FAR more poverty than Russia, and the infrastructure is far worse.
3) Let's go back to that whole "democracy" thing. Don't like Chechnya? Think Tibet. Dislike what the police in Russia occasionally do to protesters? Think Tiananmen Square (don't think that's current? remember that the country's official line, from the current government, is that the massacre was a good thing). Don't like the Kremlin takeover of the TV stations? Think "massive internet censorship, including roping in Yahoo!, Google, Microsoft, et al., and complete control over *all* media" -- there's not a snowball's chance that Kommersant.ru, gazeta.ru, Echo Moskvy Radio, The Moscow Times, The St. Petersburg Times, etc. etc., could ever operate in China like they do in Moscow and the rest of Russia. And no matter what United Russia's shenanigans are, they pale in comparison to the One True Communist Party's control (the opposition in China would give its front teeth to have the problems Russia's opposition has). Don't like how Russia is dealing with Iran? Guess who else is happily dealing with them?
La Russophobe, I guess we should actually thank you, because you've just shot down any credibility you've ever had. Before, there was a case that could be made that you actually were acting because you supported democracy, people's rights, etc., and this is why you were so vocal in your attacks. However, when you make this beyond-Cheneyesque attack on Russia, while also providing such vocal support for one of the most repressive regimes on the planet, and simultaneously hoping that millions of good, decent people (including all those Russian women you supposedly care about) are forced to live under this dictatorial regime, well ... you're a sham. Your obvious glee at the thought of ordinary Russians being forced to pass under the yoke of Beijing ... it's disgusting. And unAmerican. I'm ashamed of the fact that you appear to be one of my fellow Americans. That sort of venom -- directed not at a government, but at the people -- is awful and despicable.
Your true colors have come out, and your credibility is shot. Go home.
-- twicker
"Goldman Sachs": Russia will be the richest country in Europe
02.05.2006
The biggest investment bank "Goldman Sachs" has published its forecast claiming that Russia is to experience unprecedented economic growth. The bank experts assert that by 2027 Russia's economy will become the most powerful in the Old World, while its Gross Domestic Product will reach $3 trillion.
The study has been published right after the Russian "Gazprom" became the world's third biggest company, having outstripped the US "Microsoft" corporation, and also the third biggest company by the level of the stock exchange capitalization, which exceeds a quarter of a trillion dollars. Never before has a Russian company reached such heights in the world economic rating.
Investors of another biggest American bank, "Morgan Stanley", believe that in the foreseeable future the price of one "Gazprom" share will reach $140. "Unlimited business potential" – such are the words used in the West to characterize the Russian gas giant.
TWICKER: The G-8 is about COUNTRIES not INDIVIDUALS. If you want to compare INDIVIDUALS, why don't you compare the standard of the Russian INDIVIDUAL to that of an average individual in the OTHER G-8 countries? Of course, you can't, because if you do then Russia is a laughingstock.
Then, of course, you ignore the point about Los Angeles completely and try to change the subject, rather than admit I'm right.
Shame on you.
ANONYMOUS: Even by the pathetically low standards of the Russophile maniac, your statement about Goldman Sachs without any link to any actual source material is an outrage of incompetence. The old USSR also said that it was going to "bury" the rest of the world, and then it disappeared. There was a time when Russians could get away with this kind of nonsense (Konstantin himself tries it with an unsourced graph about demographics) but that time is long past. Now, we are just laughing at you (no wonder you choose to be ANONYMOUS).
So, Russophobic one ...
Fascinating use of statistics you have.
Let's start with this:
You state that the GDP of Russia is only 1/3 larger than the GDP of Los Angeles.
Fair enough. Now: where's your source for the GDP for LA? Or were you attempting to give an object lesson in how to present an "outrage of incompetence?"
I can see you calling Anonymous now: his/her receptionist answers, and reports back to Anon, "Mr. Kettle? There's a Ms. Pot for you on line two ... "
And, to further address your LA point: see the economic stats for Italy (source: CIA World Factbook -- Italy Economy). Note that, by the end of 2006, the PPP GDPs of Italy and Russia (Russia Factbook stats here) will be within US $9 million -- and Russia's will be HIGHER by 2007.
Therefore, assuming that you're correct about the LA GDP (did I mention your outrage of incompetence in not bothering to provide a source for your supposed statement of fact?), Italy will be in even worse shape.
Is that enough to address the laughably stupid LA analogy you used? Or do I need to poke more holes in that particular hot-air balloon?
And as to the fact that it's about countries, not individuals -- you're right! Which is why China's absolutely abysmal civil rights record comes into play. And I see that you didn't even address the two.
To paraphrase another poster:
"Of course, you ignore the point about China's abysmal human rights record completely and try to change the subject, rather than admit I'm right.
Shame on you."
Especially since I was sticking to the original subject: whether Russia or China was more deserving of a spot in the G8.
Which directly involves whether or not the country at hand is an industrialized democracy (see this article for the history of the organization).
Or, if you prefer, the Declaration of Rambouillet,, where the countries declared that each delegation represented, "the government of an open, democratic society" (see point 2 in the Declaration of that first G7 meeting).
And, can you even imagine that, if China were hosting the G8, they would ever begin to allow this little get-together?
Only if you know nothing about China, or about the G7/G8.
So, let's see:
1) Your LA example is specious and lacking any source material.
2) It applies equally as well (if not better) to Italy as to Russia -- meaning, I guess, that you thing Italy should also be kicked out in favor of China.
3) You show a complete lack of understanding of the G8 and its constituent members by both not addressing the point that the Chinese are far, far less wealthy than Russians (you skipped over that, I noticed) and far, far less democratic than Putin has ever even been accused of being -- even by you (even though democracy, as defined by Western standards, is a prerequisite for G8 membership).
You want to criticize Putin? By all means, do -- I have some problems with him myself. Want to criticize certain aspects of Russia? Go for it -- America ain't perfect either, by a long shot, and I'll criticize her as well as Russia; criticism helps improve things. But, for Pete's sake, try to keep some focus, and don't go around blasting people for the very things you're busily doing. It looks bad for you and it looks bad as a representative of our country.
TO ALL NON-AMERICANS: We're not all like her! Really! I swear!
-- twicker
TWICKER: My source for the GDP of Los Angeles metro area and Russia is THIS BLOG and in fact THIS POST. You really should at least TRY to read it before you make comments like that, shouldn't you? It's not MY analogy, it's KONSTANTIN's. Once again, you conclusively prove the utter ignorance of Neo-Soviet Russia's Russophile wackos.
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