Friday, January 06, 2006

BBC forum on Russian Ukrainian gas war

Lawrence Jarvik cited my rants on total logical inconsistence of mainstream Western media in “analyzing” who is to blame in Russian-Ukrainian gas war. Lawrence commented

Now, if I could only find a non-Russian who saw things this way...

Actually just yesterday I found a lot of non-Russians who see things this way at BBC news forum. Click here to read it. Approximately 85-90% of non-Russian forum participants believe that Russia is right. It’s ironic since the BBC article they comment upon is definitely anti-Russian. I’m really glad to find so many people who think independently and don’t rely on Cold War “analysis”.


W. Shedd said...

I think you are reading these comments through your own special filter Konstantin.

Nobody, nobody, nobody, NOBODY thinks that Russia is wrong to charge market price for their gas. No western news article ANYWHERE has said that they are wrong for this.

What is wrong is HOW they go about doing that. It is a simple distinction, I would think that you should be able to understand this. You seem reasonably intelligent.

It is typical New Russian thinking to lose sight of the subtleties of negotiations and how Russian heavy handedness has cost Gazprom and Russia more ... than a more measured approach. Yes, the drama of the staged gas shut-off was very amusing on New Years Day. No doubt many Russians strutted a little bit, happy to be giving the Ukrainians a big kukish. It scored Putin points at home.

But in the long run, the rest of Europe saw a trading partner in Russia, that was willing to cut off its nose, to spite its face. Do you seriously think that Europe wants to hitch their natural gas wagon to a stubborn mule that might refuse to work ... even if they are willing to pay? You can believe that they are going to seek alternative sources of natural gas, liquid propane, and alternative energy as part of their overall energy plan, rather than be 100% dependent upon an unreliable and capricious source of power.

Again, I will cite OPEC. Not even in the worst days of the 1970s oil squeeze, did OPEC shut off all oil. And OPEC did not constitute such a large percentage of the oil market of the US and Europe, as Russia does the natural gas market of Ukraine and some European countries.

Put yourself in the shoes of a European nation. Would YOU rely 100% upon Russian natural gas, ever, ever again? Could you afford to take that chance? The answer is of course not.

And that is what Russia lost in the time frame from December 31, 2005 to January 31, 2006. Trust as a trading partner.

Period. End of discussion. Spin it any way you want, try to twist it to suit your world view and needs ... in the end, that is all that really matters.

У мный в го ру не пойдёт, у мный го ру обойдёт

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