Who is Mr Lukashenko?

From Financial Times comes this editorial comment Bully boy of Belarus:

Mr Lukashenko, brightly dubbed Europe's last dictator, made sure he won by a margin unprecedented in the region since Soviet times. His 82 per cent vote is an insult to Belarusans and a reminder to other Europeans that even their own continent is not yet free of the scourge of dictatorship.

Not true. Mr. Saakashvili in Georgia had 97% vote and FT editors were treating that result as an unprecedented victory of democracy and freedom.

Apologists for Mr Lukashenko argue he has genuine support among Belarusans who value political and economic stability. This is true. But the country is heavily dependent on subsidised Russian oil and gas.

Statement on Russian subsidized gas is weak. Until 2006 Ukraine paid the same price for gas as Belorus but it didn’t bring political and economic stability. Price of $110 that Moldova, Georgia or Armenia pay for Russian gas should also be considered subsidized but it doesn’t help these countries.

Lukashenko's 82% of vote is quite probable although I think 70-75% is more realistic. There are several important reasons for this result:

1. Lukashenko is a super-populist. First, he doesn't stick to any ideology or rather his ideology fully coincides with a way 'a man from the street' thinks. He almost never does anything 80% of Belorusans don't agree with. Second, he's a very talented speaker who is not afraid to answer any kind of questions - and he does it well. Third, almost everything he does is focused on everyday needs of 'ordinary' people. Forth, in their everyday life only police or government officials suffer from the dictatorship. I'm not sure if I should add journalist or opposition leaders here. ALL Belorusans I know personally don't believe in their sufferings.

This is very important – I would say 90% of Belorusans PERSONALLY don’t feel like any of their freedoms are limited including freedom of speech: newspapers, radio, internet are fully available and unrestricted. Revolutions are made by people who personally feel that they are not free. Belorusans can and do travel to their neighbor countries and they can see for themselves that their living standards are higher.

2. Lukashenko's economic system is a kind of capitalism with a human face. For example, companies with high profits should buy underperformers. It takes a lot of time to register a business but rules of play are clear and corruption or racket are almost non existent. CEO of a large company is happy with $1500 monthly pay - a low skilled worker at the same company gets $400 monthly (in comparison in Russia it's $100 000 on one side and $100 on the other).

3. Social security is much better than in anywhere in the post-Soviet state including the Baltic States, although GDP per capita in Belorus is several times lower. Pensioners (the most active voters) enjoy quality of life many full-time working Russians don't have.

4. Lukashenko's war on corruption brought incredible results - in Belorus I often met government officials who were as helpful as waiters at American restaurants. Organized crime is very low and could be found only around drugs or illegal gambling.

5. The country is open - there are no problem going to work in Russia, for example. Belorusans don't need visa, work and residence permit to find a well-paid job in this country.

Ok, I can go on but as I said I'm not a Lukashenko apologist. All above mentioned points are necessary to stress the following argument:

1. Opposition in Belorus has nothing to offer to an ordinary person. They can only appeal to "capitalists" so to say who could make much more money without Lukashenko or to youth who sincerely believe that only Lukashenko is guilty they cannot become filth rich "capitalists" right now.

2. Lukashenko always points an accusing finger to Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgystan or Moldova saying, "Look! Those idiots believed in a Western-type democracy! What did they get? Total chaos, poverty, inequality, corruption and wars. We are poorer economically than Russia but we live better." Opposition has no arguments here.

3. Opposition in Belorus is anti-Russian. Actually Western NGO's all over post-Soviet sphere subsidize ONLY anti-Russian opposition. No exceptions. This is a great mistake. The same as being anti-Semitic in Israel.

Knowing all this take yet another comment from the FT editor:

Also, Mr Lukashenko's approach is politically unsustainable. As incomes rise, Belorusans are demanding the same freedoms as others. It is no accident the greatest opposition is in Minsk, the richest city.

I doubt it strongly.